Disclaimer: I am not an economist, or what you would consider a traditional “Economist.” Much of what I have learned is from real life experiences, and that experience which I have gathered while inside Eve Online. The Eve Online market is an amazing thing, it operates similarly to that of a real world market, and allows for real time experimentation with market forces.
No single person can fully comprehend a market or what it will do, since it is player driven, and players are inherently unpredictable. Market psychology, behavioral economics, and that vast number of other market mechanisms at play are beyond the scope of this article. In general I will not be going down the economic theory rabbit hole since I prefer gross over simplification, but if you would like to indulge please see the links annotated here.1
I hope that you can use this information for what it is intended to show, a simple price alert either high or low, understand anything beyond that is speculation.
Items in Eve Online are constantly being over produced, over bought, and a number of other various mismanagement mistakes that you can think of happen for various reasons. But one thing that anyone can spot are trends, and I would like to point out Iteron Mark V’s here as being over produced, and/or over sold.
Without any other variables, and just looking at the current market trend. in this case down, I believe that the current Iteron Mark V market is unnaturally low. I think market forces will eventually cause the Iteron prices to rise to around the 1.2 to 1.3 million range. Of course on the way back up, momentum usually takes these things way past their equalization point resulting in volatile swings in the opposite direction, so it is not unusual to see high prices in the 1.3 to 1.5 million range with extreme high prices around 2.5 mil each, the latter only about 5 days out of the year.
In summary, an investment in Iteron ships now at the 999k price range should return about 17% when prices return to 1.2 mil, and 44% returns if you manage to hit an upswing back into the 1.5 mil spike.
Below you can see the researched and unresearched blue prints for the Iteron Mark V, their mineral costs, and the costs for beginning the manufacturing jobs at an NPC station in High Sec, of course if you want to get even better results you could get yourself a station for manufacturing and lower the cost that much more but I am just going with straight NPC station data. These numbers are all rough estimates and may be off by a few ten thousand here or there but you get the general idea. Purchase the ships now, and then sell them when the investment comes of age in the future.
In closing I would like to say that I did invest in 20 Iteron Mark V ships for a total of about 20 million ISK. This is just for demonstration purposes only, I have various other investments that I come across all the time and purchase around 10 or 20 million or so at a time in order to have some returns on capital that I am not using.
A smarter way to do it would be to place Buy orders for the 700k and get your profits when you buy and sell at 999k, which would net you a 28% return on investment, but this assumes you will not be outbid, and that someone is willing to sell to you an item at about a 100k+ isk loss, while possible, I do not believe that to be a likely scenario, so my investment strategy is more medium to long term, versus a simple purchase and instant flip.
For the record 44% return in this case is 8.8 million ISK, not including taxes, and 17% returns are 3.4 million same as above.
This section is reserved for future updates on the price of Iteron Mark V’s, Returns Date TBD.
Editors Note: My apologies for the poor quality images, that was due to my lack of experience in capturing images with a new method I was trying, and it has since been corrected.
Economic Theory Rabbit Holes:
These are just a few, please continue on your journey into economic theories.